The Bottom Line: How accurate is the information? Any database provider who makes any certainty or accuracy claims for their information product is misleading their clients. Essentially, in a world of Chaos Theory, irrational politicians and currency speculators there is no credible information supplier that can guarantee any aspect of the information provided. For example it is well know that the U.S. Government frequently misreport trade statistics in order to influence GATT negotiations; the British Government have for at least 20 years been cooking the books on the unemployment figures and have reported figures which bear no relationship to the truth; and a similar fabrication of economic statistics can be found with almost every government in the world.

Lies, Damn Lies and Statistics: How can one get good information? The only certain way to get good information is to use good methodology. The truth is that MarketCD and CompanyCD Titles are produced to a certain price and given the margins available the best possible methodology is used to produce the product. To find out if this product is better or worse than competitor information products you need to compare the methodology of the competitors. The best methodology will produce the best information. That is the bottom line.

It is very difficult in a limited discussion like this to adequately describe the Methodology used in the production of MarketCD and CompanyCD Titles.

The systems and software used for this product have been for the past 25 years, and even more so today, by far the most advanced in the world and thus MarketCD and CompanyCD are at the apex of the application of artificial intelligence, forecasting and computer technology.

The first important aspect to remember about MarketCD and CompanyCD is that they are entirely computerised - from initial survey interviewing to the final print of the CD-Rom and this means that clients are assured of a uniform standard and quality with all Titles.

The computerisation, development of the methodology and the programs took over 20 years and we believe that the generation of the databases and MarketCD and CompanyCD Titles are the most advanced in the world. No other company has such advanced techniques or such thorough methodology.

The fact that the interview methodology is so automated means that the units costs per question or per survey are much lower than that of other researchers, thus one can offer clients very competitive prices for both databases and CD-Roms. There are extensive security checks built into survey methodology to ensure accuracy and confidentiality.

ORIGINAL RESEARCH

MarketCD and CompanyCD are based on wholly original research. There is little confidence in company accounts, credit reports, government or trade statistics and thus one has to approach the problem of getting corporate intelligence and market data from a number of standpoints.

DATA SOURCES

Data on an individual company level, its suppliers, internal operations, products, competitors and markets was examined at four levels of commercial activity:-

The Input Level: An analysis of the Input materials, supplies and services bought or consumed by companies, the type of goods or services bought, value of products bought, quantities, prices paid, scheduling of purchases, et cetera.

The Process Level: An exploration of the internal processes at companies which combined the Input products with the procedures that manipulate the inner components (Financial + Capital resources, Management, Labour, Equipment usage, Physical processes, Product production, Premises & Locations, Distribution, Marketing, et cetera) to produce the Output product - whether that be physical products or services.

The Competitor Level: An investigation into the major competitors of individual companies and the company's relative performance, its product offerings, its service, its quality, et cetera, in relation and relative to the other competitors.

The Market Level: An appraisal of the interaction of the company with the various market elements and the problems and opportunities for that company within the markets in which the company operates and within markets in which the company may potentially operate in the future.

For example, the market consumption data provided in the databases will be based on three independent sources:-
i. A statistically accurate survey of End Users, i.e. the market.
ii. A statistically accurate survey of the Distribution System.
iii. A survey of all major Competitors, i.e. the industry base.

By gaining information from these levels of market activity one can produce a very accurate picture of the market.

The same thorough methodology prevails throughout the entire study and this is the reason why these products are reputedly of such a high quality.

EFFICIENT PROCESSING OF DATA

In addition to the national on-line searches and the gathering of other local, public and private information, the results of survey interviews are entered by the interviewers directly into a micro-computer or intelligent terminal and after each interview session the results are directly transferred to one of the processing computers.

EXCELLENT FORECASTING MODELS

Forecasts are produced using an extremely comprehensive matrix of forecasting models which take the best features from a wide range of forecasting models and blended these into an interactive matrix which ensures a high level of certainty in forecasts produced.

HIGHLY SOPHISTICATED REPORT GENERATION

The databases and subsequent reports are entirely composed by computer using the base data provided by the various surveys and from other sources. The software constructs the Title database which is then output on CD-Rom and it is these originals which are supplied to the client who thus receives the most up-to-date information.

AUTOMATIC UP-DATING

Databases are automatically up-dated by the computer when new surveys are completed or company / market / competitor conditions change and thus a new forecast is needed. This is done as often as may be necessary (and especially with Consumer, Seasonal or High Technology markets where up-dates are done weekly). The majority of databases need only to be updated monthly.

INPUT FROM CONSULTANTS + SPECIALISTS

SURVEY METHODOLOGY

The only reliable way to analyse and evaluate the market-place is by conducting statistically accurate analyses of the Suppliers, Bankers, Financiers, Service Providers to the company and then the Distribution Channels and End Users of the company's products and services. Also surveys are necessary for the Competitors of the company and the overall Industry and Market environment. By correlating the results of these analyses one can provide highly accurate data and analyses on the company, its Competitors, the Markets, the Products, the Marketing, the Industry, the Distribution and the Customers.

END USER SURVEYS

The most important part of the base data collection are the END USERS SURVEYS, (i.e. the customers of the company and the various competitors), as these reveal the true nature of the market-place.

The END USER SURVEYS conducted use the following formula:

1. SELECTION OF INTERVIEW PANELS

2. MAILING TO POTENTIAL INTERVIEWEES (Industrial & Commercial markets only)

3. PILOT SURVEY (5% OF SAMPLE)

4. MAIN SURVEY (90% OF SAMPLE)

5. CHECK SURVEY (5% OF SAMPLE)

6. CONSUMER / END USER PERSONAL SURVEYS

SAMPLE STRUCTURE

It is a standard technique of the surveys of End Users, the Distribution Channels and Suppliers to interview three levels of respondents:-

1. the majority of the sample is taken from respondents CURRENTLY involved with the company and/or the product,

2. a sample is taken of respondents FORMERLY involved with the company and/or the product, and

3. a sample is taken from respondents who are POTENTIALLY likely to be involved with the product or company in the future.

This method gives a very accurate picture of the development of the product and market over a period of time.

Thus it is possible to evaluate and analyse the reasons:-

i. why respondents currently supply, distribute or consume the products

ii. why respondents have ceased (for reasons of technical or technological developments, product obsolescence or substitution, et cetera) to be involved with the product, and

iii. lastly why respondents are planning to become involved in the product (for reasons of new product development, new production facilities, acquisition, diversification, et cetera).


The samples of the Distribution Channels and End Users are composed of a stratified random sample. The stratification of the sample reflects analysis and modelling of frequency variables (e.g. level & value of product flow), sample dispersion (e.g. type of respondents in the universe), distribution skewness, product correlations, regression, probability and significance, time projection and trends.

TOTAL SURVEY SAMPLE

SAMPLE SIZES

There is a guaranteed minimum VALID sample size for each of the databases. Sample sizes vary from market to market, however the following examples show the parameters that apply:-

INTERVIEWING METHOD

Sampling is carried out by personal and/or telephone interview. The exact interviewing method used depends on the complexity of the product or market as well as the depth of information sought.

SURVEY ANALYSIS

Personal interviews are recorded on data sheets which are then encoded and processed by the computer systems. Telephone interviews are conducted by interviewers who place the information received directly into a micro-computer or intelligent terminal. The data is then transferred directly by modem to the main computers for batch processing.

SUPPLIERS SURVEYS

The Surveys of Suppliers and Service Providers use the same methodology as the surveys above.

SUPPLIER SAMPLES

The sample of Suppliers represents at least 70 to 75% of the total universe. The surveys of Suppliers yields confirmation of supplier output to the companies in the industry, product information, financial data and future plans. Suppliers are regarded as being a reliable source of information on companies as they tend to be keen to discuss their selling prowess, are informed about the procurement of their customers and are knowledgeable about the products purchased by companies and thus their internal processes.

DISTRIBUTION CHANNEL SURVEYS

The Distribution Channel Surveys use the same methodology, Interview Method and Survey Analysis as do the End User Surveys.

SAMPLE SIZE

Sample sizes for the Distribution Channel Surveys are based on a percentage of the total number of companies distributing the product/s concerned. The percentage interviewed depends on the industry in question and the complexity of the product. In general however the following average sample size are used:-

COMPETITOR SURVEYS

The Surveys of Competitors the same methodology as the surveys above.

COMPETITOR SAMPLES

The sample of Competitors represents at least 10 to 75% of the total universe (depending on the market). The surveys of Competitors yields verification of product output & specifications, financial data and future product and market plans. Competitors are considered a reasonable source of information on markets as they are inclined to promote their future plans, marketing activities and product performance as well as their expertise in market and competitive conditions.

Regressional Survey Sample data profiles + locations.
Contact lists, Respondent allocation criteria, Standard deviation + scatter historic data

Downloaded to Interviewer terminals

Computer allocates questionnaires, sample sizes, locations, range checks, input screening + formats.
Questionnaires transmitted to Interviewer

Historic Data sets + time series from 1974

Questionnaires

Questionnaires:
Surveys of End Users, Distribution Channels & Suppliers

Batch processed:
Postal, Telephone, Personal Interviews

Survey Results + Response Input on Interviewer terminals, batch processed & transmitted to process computer

Historic Data sets + time series from 1974

Raw survey data

Fixed Internal Databases

Online

Input to Process computer

Historic Data sets + time series from 1974

Fixed Internal Database results.
Output data specific to Product / Market / Geographic Location

Fixed External Databases

Online + Scanned hardcopy

Input to Process computer

Various time series + data sets

Fixed External Database results.
Output data specific to Product / Market / Geographic Location

Web Search of External Databases

Online

Input to Process computer

Various time series + data sets

Web Crawler Database results.
Selected data specific to Product / Market / Geographic Location

Changing Factors, Technical, Technological, New Product & Market Development Databases

Online + Scanned hardcopy

Input to Process computer

Various time series + data sets

Changing Factors results.
Result data specific to Product / Market / Geographic Location

Expert + Specialist Editing

Online Edit

Online to Process computer

Modified data sets

Expert + Specialist Edited results.
Edited data specific to Product / Market / Geographic Location

Online:
Raw survey data }
Fixed Internal Databases }
Fixed External Databases }
Web Crawler Databases }
Changing Factors }
Expert + Specialist results }

Process computer correlates Internal & External databases results

Standardised time series & data sets produced for forecasting purposes

Output Data Sets

Forecast Battery + Planning Models

Online:
Output Data Sets

Output Data Sets applied to Forecasting Battery methodology

Data Sets as per Title specifications

CD-Rom Title

TELEPHONE SURVEY METHODOLOGY

The local interviewers receive the survey questionnaires and the names and telephone numbers of the survey respondents and the questionnaires and contact lists are stored on computer. The reverse method is used by the interviewers to transmit the survey results to the process computer at the end of each interview session.

The interviewers use their micro-computers when interviewing. The questionnaires are displayed on screen and the interviewers asks the questions which appear and type in the respondent's answers.

The computer firstly displays the respondent's name and telephone number. A percentage of the telephone numbers displayed are "check" numbers and the interviewers have to identify these; this assures that all the interviews are being conducted and therefore guarantees the integrity of the survey.

The questionnaire displayed on the screen is interactive and intelligent and will not allow the interviewer to input answers which do not comply to certain range checks, input screening, and correlation with preceding answers.


The interviewers computer also :-

1. Monitors the number of interviews done for each questionnaire and thereby ensures that the correct sample size is achieved.

2. Records spoiled questionnaires which have been rejected because of insufficient data received or incorrect input ranges. These are then analysed to establish why answers did not correspond to the range checks.

3. Records changes of contact names or job functions.

4. Monitors and ensures that the required number of "check" respondents have been identified and thereby ensures the integrity of the sample.

5. Provides notes and explanations for interviewers and respondents which facilitate the understanding of the questions asked.

EXAMPLE: If an interviewer is surveying a truck operator then the computer will format the questionnaire according to the makes and models of trucks operated by the respondent. The computer also imposes range checks and input screening according to particular makes and type of trucks; therefore, if the interviewer asks questions about the engine life or gearbox life the computer will only accept answers within certain ranges. These ranges will be based on the known average life of engines or gearboxes of particular truck makes. The computer monitors answers and will amend the known standard deviation of response ranges. As answers change (due to technological or product development, changes in buying patterns, et cetera) the ranges and input screens are automatically amended.

DATABASE STRUCTURE

Databases are composed of individual company and product databases which are then aggregated to form report databases.

The actual report will be composed of a number of database levels which reflect the company and their individual products being investigated. Databases are held at a number of levels and thus editors can choose exactly how detailed the information they require need be.

EXAMPLE: If one were to analyse a target company mainly producing ACTIVE ELECTRONIC COMPONENTS the corporate database structure would be as follows:-

CORPORATE DATABASE STRUCTURE
ACTIVE ELECTRONIC COMPONENTS:
Capital Providers		Suppliers of Materials		Service Providers		In-House Process	Product Output
Capital & Funds used by the Company		Supplies & Materials purchased by the Company		Serviced purchased by the Company		In-house Processes & Activities	Process
Fixed Long Term Funds, Buildings, Equipment & Vehicles, Fixed Short Term Funds...							Infrastructure
	Process Products Consumed by the Company
		Silicon, hyperpure + unalloyed, Plastic resins, Precious metals, Gold, Doped chemicals, Germanium, Magnetic products, Insulated products, Metal powders, Metal semi-finished products, Electronic sub-components, Production supplies, Manufacturing plant supplies, Packaging materials, Handling / marketing supplies...		Sub-Contractors, Financial Services, Bank Loans, Debts, Rent & Leases, Communications, Maintenance Costs, Power & Fuel, Electricity, Other Services purchased, General Variable Expenses...			Input Stocks & Services
						Labour & Staff, Handling, Stocks, Other Internal costs/expense...	Physical In-House Process
Process Products Produced by the Company
Darlingtons Duals Field Effect General Purpose Germanium High Frequency Low Frequency Low Noise Power Photo Programmable Quads Signal Switching Unijunction Hybrid Customs By End User By Application By Specifications By Unit Price By Unit Volume		Each product is then aggregated into Groups:- Diodes Indicating Devices Rectifiers Thyristors Miscellaneous Discrete Components Database Transistors		Each Group is then aggregated into higher groups:- Valves & Tubes ICs Miscellaneous Components Database Discrete Semi-Conductors		Active Electronic Components	Physical Products Shipped to Customers

1. Isolate those Suppliers which are providing the Capital, Input materials and Services which is used by the target company.

2. Analyse the Processes of the target company which take the Capital Resources, the Input materials and the Services provided, merge them with the Internal activities of the target company and thereby Output the product.

3. Review all the competitors of the target company and determine how these competitors will impinge in market terms.

4. Investigate the Markets, actual and potential, for the target company.