CAPITAL COSTS FINANCIAL SCENARIOS

Company Products & Services

CAPITAL COSTS FINANCIAL SCENARIOS

CONTENTS

Page:

      CAPITAL COSTS FINANCIAL SCENARIOS FOR THE INDUSTRY

1

~ .... HISTORIC FINANCIAL DATA FOR CAPITAL COSTS FINANCIAL SCENARIO ISSUES

2

~ .... Historic Balance Sheet

3

~ ~ ...... Historic Costs & Margins

4

~ ~ ........ Historic Financial Ratios & Margins

5

~ ~ .......... Historic Operational Ratios & Margins

6

~ .... Financial forecast notes

7

~ .... CAPITAL COST BASED BALANCE SHEET FORECASTS

8

~ .... Base Forecast : Median Market Scenario Balance Sheet Forecast

9

~ ...... Base Forecast : Median Market Scenario Operational Costs Forecast

10

~ ........ Base Forecast : Median Market Scenario Financial Ratios

11

~ .......... Base Forecast : Median Market Scenario Operational Margins

12

~ .... New Equity Scenarios Balance Sheet Forecast

13

~ ...... New Equity Scenarios Operational Costs Forecast

14

~ ........ New Equity Scenarios Financial Ratios

15

~ .......... New Equity Scenarios Operational Margins

16

~ .... Bank Borrowing: Base Scenarios Balance Sheet Forecast

17

~ ...... Bank Borrowing: Base Scenarios Operational Costs Forecast

18

~ ........ Bank Borrowing: Base Scenarios Financial Ratios

19

~ .......... Bank Borrowing: Base Scenarios Operational Margins

20

~ .... Bank Borrowing: 3% Inflation Scenarios Balance Sheet Forecast

21

~ ...... Bank Borrowing: 3% Inflation Scenarios Operational Costs Forecast

22

~ ........ Bank Borrowing: 3% Inflation Scenarios Financial Ratios

23

~ .......... Bank Borrowing: 3% Inflation Scenarios Operational Margins

24

~ .... Bank Borrowing: 6% Inflation Scenarios Balance Sheet Forecast

25

~ ...... Bank Borrowing: 6% Inflation Scenarios Operational Costs Forecast

26

~ ........ Bank Borrowing: 6% Inflation Scenarios Financial Ratios

27

~ .......... Bank Borrowing: 6% Inflation Scenarios Operational Margins

28

~ .... Bank Borrowing: 9% Inflation Scenarios Balance Sheet Forecast

29

~ ...... Bank Borrowing: 9% Inflation Scenarios Operational Costs Forecast

30

~ ........ Bank Borrowing: 9% Inflation Scenarios Financial Ratios

31

~ .......... Bank Borrowing: 9% Inflation Scenarios Operational Margins

32

~ .... Bond / Debentures Scenarios Balance Sheet Forecast

33

~ ...... Bond / Debentures Scenarios Operational Costs Forecast

34

~ ........ Bond / Debentures Scenarios Financial Ratios

35

~ .......... Bond / Debentures Scenarios Operational Margins

36

~ .... Asset Sales: 5% of Assets Scenarios Balance Sheet Forecast

37

~ ...... Asset Sales: 5% of Assets Scenarios Operational Costs Forecast

38

~ ........ Asset Sales: 5% of Assets Scenarios Financial Ratios

39

~ .......... Asset Sales: 5% of Assets Scenarios Operational Margins

40

~ .... Asset Sales: 10% of Assets Scenarios Balance Sheet Forecast

41

~ ...... Asset Sales: 10% of Assets Scenarios Operational Costs Forecast

42

~ ........ Asset Sales: 10% of Assets Scenarios Financial Ratios

43

~ .......... Asset Sales: 10% of Assets Scenarios Operational Margins

44

~ .... Asset Sales: 25% of Assets Scenarios Balance Sheet Forecast

45

~ ...... Asset Sales: 25% of Assets Scenarios Operational Costs Forecast

46

~ ........ Asset Sales: 25% of Assets Scenarios Financial Ratios

47

~ .......... Asset Sales: 25% of Assets Scenarios Operational Margins

48

~ .... Self Generated Funds: Worst Scenarios Balance Sheet Forecast

49

~ ...... Self Generated Funds: Worst Scenarios Operational Costs Forecast

50

~ ........ Self Generated Funds: Worst Scenarios Financial Ratios

51

~ .......... Self Generated Funds: Worst Scenarios Operational Margins

52

~ .... Self Generated Funds: Best Scenarios Balance Sheet Forecast

53

~ ...... Self Generated Funds: Best Scenarios Operational Costs Forecast

54

~ ........ Self Generated Funds: Best Scenarios Financial Ratios

55

~ .......... Self Generated Funds: Best Scenarios Operational Margins

56

~ .... Trading Credit Extension & Margin Reduction Scenarios Balance Sheet Forecast

57

~ ...... Trading Credit Extension & Margin Reduction Scenarios Operational Costs Forecast

58

~ ........ Trading Credit Extension & Margin Reduction Scenarios Financial Ratios

59

~ .......... Trading Credit Extension & Margin Reduction Scenarios Operational Margins

61

~ .... Financial data definitions

INDEX

HISTORIC FINANCIAL DATA

CAPITAL COSTS FINANCIAL SCENARIOS ISSUES

F_H - FIN_HIST.HTM   HISTORIC FINANCIAL DATA

 Financial Definitions

CAPITAL COST

FINANCIAL DATA FORECAST

CAPITAL COST BASED BALANCE SHEET FORECASTS


The CAPITAL COST BALANCE SHEET FORECASTS section gives a series of Balance Sheet Forecasts for the industry using a number of assumptions relating to the Capital Costs decisions available to the management of the industry.

The Balance sheet forecast given shows the effects of Capital Cost Financing and the impact of this burden on the profitability of the acquisition.

Capital Cost Financing Scenarios

- Base Forecast : Median Market Scenario

- New Equity Issue Scenarios
- Bank Borrowing: Base Scenarios
- Bank Borrowing: 3% Inflation Scenarios
- Bank Borrowing: 6% Inflation Scenarios
- Bank Borrowing: 9% Inflation Scenarios
- Bond / Debentures Scenarios
- Asset Sales: 5% of Assets Scenarios
- Asset Sales: 10% of Assets Scenarios
- Asset Sales: 25% of Assets Scenarios
- Self Generated Funds: Worst Scenarios
- Self Generated Funds: Best Scenarios
- Trading Credit Extension & Margin Reduction Scenarios

Financial Controllers in the industry will have, in both the short-term and the long-term, crucial decisions to make regarding the cost of financing capital investments or acquisition plus subsequent cash-flow and profitability. These decisions will need to be evaluated in light of the customers, markets, competitors, products, industry and internal factors. The scenarios given isolate 12 of the most important factors and provide balance sheet forecasts for each of the scenarios.

The data provides a short and medium term forecast covering the next 6 years for each of the Forecast Financial and Operational items. The Financial and Operational Data sections show each of the items listed below in terms of forecast data and covers a period of the next 6 years.


Base Forecast : Median Market Scenario

F0M|     MEDIAN  FORECAST : Financials

G0M|     MEDIAN  FORECAST : Margins & Ratios

New Equity Scenarios

F73|     NEW EQUITY SCENARIOS : Financials

G73|     NEW EQUITY SCENARIOS : Margins & Ratios

Bank Borrowing: Base Scenarios

F74|     BANK BORROWING: BASE SCENARIOS : Financials

G74|     BANK BORROWING: BASE SCENARIOS : Margins & Ratios

Bank Borrowing: 3% Inflation Scenarios

F75|     BANK BORROWING: 3% INFLATION SCENARIOS : Financials

G75|     BANK BORROWING: 3% INFLATION SCENARIOS : Margins & Ratios

Bank Borrowing: 6% Inflation Scenarios

F76|     BANK BORROWING: 6% INFLATION SCENARIOS : Financials

G76|     BANK BORROWING: 6% INFLATION SCENARIOS : Margins & Ratios

Bank Borrowing: 9% Inflation Scenarios

F77|     BANK BORROWING: 9% INFLATION SCENARIOS : Financials

G77|     BANK BORROWING: 9% INFLATION SCENARIOS : Margins & Ratios

Bond / Debentures Scenarios

F78|     BOND / DEBENTURES SCENARIOS : Financials

G78|     BOND / DEBENTURES SCENARIOS : Margins & Ratios

Asset Sales: 5% of Assets Scenarios

F79|     ASSET SALES: 5% OF ASSETS SCENARIOS : Financials

G79|     ASSET SALES: 5% OF ASSETS SCENARIOS : Margins & Ratios

Asset Sales: 10% of Assets Scenarios

F80|     ASSET SALES: 10% OF ASSETS SCENARIOS : Financials

G80|     ASSET SALES: 10% OF ASSETS SCENARIOS : Margins & Ratios

Asset Sales: 25% of Assets Scenarios

F81|     ASSET SALES: 25% OF ASSETS SCENARIOS : Financials

G81|     ASSET SALES: 25% OF ASSETS SCENARIOS : Margins & Ratios

Self Generated Funds: Worst Scenarios

F82|     SELF GENERATED FUNDS: WORST SCENARIOS : Financials

G82|     SELF GENERATED FUNDS: WORST SCENARIOS : Margins & Ratios

Self Generated Funds: Best Scenarios

F83|     SELF GENERATED FUNDS: BEST SCENARIOS : Financials

G83|     SELF GENERATED FUNDS: BEST SCENARIOS : Margins & Ratios

Trading Credit Extension & Margin Reduction Scenarios

F84 |     TRADING CREDIT EXTENSION & MARGIN REDUCTION SCENARIOS : Financials

G84 |     TRADING CREDIT EXTENSION & MARGIN REDUCTION SCENARIOS : Margins & Ratios

FIN_DEFI.HTM FINANCIAL DEFINITIONS

INDEX

Balance Sheet Asset Sales: 10% of Assets Scenarios, 40
Balance Sheet Asset Sales: 25% of Assets Scenarios, 44
Balance Sheet Asset Sales: 5% of Assets Scenarios, 36
Balance Sheet Bank Borrowing: 3% Inflation Scenario, 20
Balance Sheet Bank Borrowing: 6% Inflation Scenario, 24
Balance Sheet Bank Borrowing: 9% Inflation Scenario, 28
Balance Sheet Bank Borrowing: Base Scenarios, 16
Balance Sheet Base Forecast : Median Market Scenario, 8
Balance Sheet Bond / Debentures Scenarios, 32
Balance Sheet Historic, 2
Balance Sheet New Equity Scenarios, 12
Balance Sheet Self Generated Funds: Best Scenarios, 52
Balance Sheet Self Generated Funds: Worst Scenario, 48
Balance Sheet Trading Credit Extension & Margin Re, 56

CAPITAL COST FORECASTS, 7
Costs & Margins Historic, 3

Financial data definitions, 61
Financial forecast notes, 6
Financial Ratios Asset Sales: 10% of Assets Scenario, 42
Financial Ratios Asset Sales: 25% of Assets Scenario, 46
Financial Ratios Asset Sales: 5% of Assets Scenario, 38
Financial Ratios Bank Borrowing: 3% Inflation, 22
Financial Ratios Bank Borrowing: 6% Inflation, 26
Financial Ratios Bank Borrowing: 9% Inflation, 30
Financial Ratios Bank Borrowing: Base Scenarios, 18
Financial Ratios Base Forecast : Median Market, 10
Financial Ratios Bond / Debentures Scenarios, 34
Financial Ratios New Equity Scenarios, 14
Financial Ratios Self Generated Funds: Best Scenario, 54
Financial Ratios Self Generated Funds: Worst Scenario, 50
Financial Ratios Trading Credit Extension & Margin, 58
Financial Ratios & Margins Historic, 4

HISTORIC CAPITAL COSTS FINANCIAL ISSUES, 1

Operational Costs Asset Sales: 10% of Assets, 41
Operational Costs Asset Sales: 25% of Assets, 45
Operational Costs Asset Sales: 5% of Assets Scenario, 37
Operational Costs Bank Borrowing: 3% Inflation, 21
Operational Costs Bank Borrowing: 6% Inflation, 25
Operational Costs Bank Borrowing: 9% Inflation, 29
Operational Costs Bank Borrowing: Base Scenarios, 17
Operational Costs Base Forecast : Median Market, 9
Operational Costs Bond / Debentures Scenarios, 33
Operational Costs New Equity Scenarios, 13
Operational Costs Self Generated Funds: Best Scenario, 53
Operational Costs Self Generated Funds: Worst Scenario, 49
Operational Costs Trading Credit Extension, 57
Operational Margins Asset Sales: 10% of Assets, 43
Operational Margins Asset Sales: 25% of Assets, 47
Operational Margins Asset Sales: 5% of Assets, 39
Operational Margins Bank Borrowing: 3% Inflation, 23
Operational Margins Bank Borrowing: 6% Inflation, 27
Operational Margins Bank Borrowing: 9% Inflation, 31
Operational Margins Bank Borrowing: Base Scenarios, 19
Operational Margins Base Forecast : Median Market, 11
Operational Margins Bond / Debentures Scenarios, 35
Operational Margins New Equity Scenarios, 15
Operational Margins Self Generated Funds: Best, 55
Operational Margins Self Generated Funds: Worst, 51
Operational Margins Trading Credit Extension, 59
Operational Ratios & Margins Historic, 5

CONTENTS

Asset Sales: 10% of Assets Scenarios
Asset Sales: 25% of Assets Scenarios
Asset Sales: 5% of Assets Scenarios
Bank Borrowing: 3% Inflation Scenarios
Bank Borrowing: 6% Inflation Scenarios
Bank Borrowing: 9% Inflation Scenarios
Bank Borrowing: Base Scenarios
Base Forecast : Median Market Scenario
Bond / Debentures Scenarios
CAPITAL COST FORECASTS
HISTORIC CAPITAL COSTS FINANCIAL ISSUES
New Equity Scenarios
Self Generated Funds: Best Scenarios
Self Generated Funds: Worst Scenarios


HISTORIC CAPITAL COSTS FINANCIAL ISSUES
CAPITAL COST FORECASTS
Base Forecast : Median Market Scenario
New Equity Scenarios
Bank Borrowing: Base Scenarios
Bank Borrowing: 3% Inflation Scenarios
Bank Borrowing: 6% Inflation Scenarios
Bank Borrowing: 9% Inflation Scenarios
Bond / Debentures Scenarios
Asset Sales: 5% of Assets Scenarios
Asset Sales: 10% of Assets Scenarios
Asset Sales: 25% of Assets Scenarios
Self Generated Funds: Worst Scenarios
Self Generated Funds: Best Scenarios
Trading Credit Extension & Margin Reduction Scenarios